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Financial Forecast

 

Sources of Transportation Funding

 

State Act 51 of 1951 guides collection and distribution of fuel, vehicle registration fees and weight taxes in Michigan. Michigan's fuel tax is collected at the refinery and deposited into the Michigan Transportation Fund (MTF). Federal taxes are placed in the Highway Trust Fund. All States and the federal government earmark all or some portion of the tax for support of highways and mass transit improvements. MTF dollars are distributed to MDOT, county road commissions, cities and villages using a complex formula including population and mileage of public roads under each agency's jurisdiction. It should be noted that the county road commissions have the jurisdiction over township roads and share the maintenance and improvement responsibility with the townships. The State also has programs for transportation improvements in their Transportation Economic Development Fund with categories for urban counties, rural counties, for improvements to the commercial network and for economic development that adds new jobs in the state.

 

Michigan cities and villages provide additional funding for roadway maintenance and development. Typical sources at this level include a community's general fund, dedicated millages, the sale of general obligation bonds, contribution from private sources, other governments and other local communities, tax increment financing and special assessment districts.

 

County road commissions supplement their budgets through contributions from townships, private contributions, special assessment districts, DDA funds and maintenance agreements with MDOT for work on state trunklines within the county. The private sector has recently become an active participant, with financing typically paid by developers to construct access roads to their developments at a minimum and often other improvements that are needed as a result of their development.

 

At the federal level the current funding programs used for transportation were first implemented with the passage of ISTEA and later renewed in TEA21. These programs include the Surface Transportation Program (STP), providing funds for the urban, rural, safety, and enhancement programs for the County. There are also funds specifically for bridge repairs and rehabilitation as well as funds designated to relieve congestion and improve air quality.

 

Methodology

 

The Southeast Michigan Council of Governments projects the revenues for all road agencies in the seven county region. They complete the forecast using a variety of data sources and forecasting procedures. One source is the receipts and expenditures for road and street improvement that the state, county and local governments are required to report under ACT 51. SEMCOG also used the funding set by Congress in the annual appropriation legislation and lastly the historic data of funded improvements.

 

Two forecasts were developed because there are funds that are dedicated specifically to transit. The financial forecast that excludes the transit specific funds is shown in Table 6. The Transit forecast factors in the funds associated only with transit service and is shown in Table 7.

 

Using the SEMCOG forecast, the Washtenaw Area Transportation Study develops financial targets for each of its' member agencies using a series of factors which include the federal and state methodologies for specific fund allocation, ACT 51 reports, population, and historic expenditure data. These are only targets and the projects are selected based on value to the region. Some agencies use less than their target and some use more. The county forecast provided by the Southeast Michigan Council of Governments (SEMCOG) is used to insure the projects included in the long range plan remain within the fiscal budget.

 

Table 6
Washtenaw County Financial Forecast Excluding Transit
 
2005
2006 - 2010
2011 - 2015
2016 - 2020
2021 - 2025
2026 - 2030
Total
Federal
(all numbers of in thousands)
STPU
4,400
21,929
21,489
20,639
18,904
15,428
102,788
TEDF D
470
2,275
1,916
1,613
1,354
1,162
8,789
TEDF F
-
-
528
-
-
-
528
TEDF A
6,311
3,600
-
-
3,100
2,700
15,711
STPR
358
1,784
1,748
1,678
1,585
1,495
8,649
STPE
153
760
745
715
675
637
3,685
STPS
193
933
785
661
555
477
3,604
CMAQ
517
2,555
2,409
2,245
2,070
1,916
11,711
CRBRDG
7,560
10,225
3,860
3,800
3,800
3,800
33,045
Total Federal
$12,401
$33,837
$29,619
$27,552
$28,243
$23,813
$155,465
 
 
2005
2006 - 2010
2011 - 2015
2016 - 2020
2021 - 2025
2026 - 2030
Total
Local
(all numbers of in thousands)
Cities and Villages MTF
2,835
13,985
13,004
11,963
11,002
10,078
62,867
WCRC MTF
4,715
23,197
21,325
19,521
17,772
16,238
102,767
Plan MTF
3,859
18,500
21,322
37,413
28,286
29,157
 
Total MTF
$7,550
$37,181
$34,330
$31,485
$28,773
$26,315
$165,634
Other Local
7,313
36,563
36,563
36,563
36,558
36,538
190,097
GF
-
5,278
2,519
2,140
2,000
1,676
13,613
DDA
-
12,300
9,040
20
-
-
21,360
Private
2,579
186
25
-
-
-
2,790
Roads Millage
14,221
77,788
86,176
88,617
96,212
94,824
457,838
Parks Millage
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Bond
1,435
100
-
1,100
-
-
2,635
Spec Assess
925
725
690
300
300
300
3,240
Schools
1,250
10
-
-
-
-
1,260
Other
4,245
18,657
15,705
14,091
11,755
10,184
74,637
Total Other
$28,514
$133,543
$135,477
$143,681
$138,553
$136,141
$577,373

Total Local

$14,862

$73,744

$70,893

$68,048

$65,331

$62,853

$355,731
 
Grand Total
$27,263
$107,581
$100,512
$95,600
$93,575
$86,666
$511,196
Source: Southeast Michigan Council of Governments

 

Table 7
Washtenaw County Transit Financial Forecast
 
2005
2006 - 2010
2011 - 2015
2016 - 2020
2021 - 2025
2026 - 2030
Total
Federal
(all numbers are in thousands)
5307
4,294
21,725
22,849
23,255
23,103
22,664
117,890
5310
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
5311
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
CMAQ
850
4,201
3,961
3,691
3,402
3,149
19,253
Total Federal
$5,153
$26,095
$27,475
$27,610
$27,148
$26,368
$139,848
 
 
2005
2006 - 2010
2011 - 2015
2016 - 2020
2021 - 2025
2026 - 2030
Total
State
(all numbers are in thousands)
CTF Capital
443
2,215
2,215
2,215
2,215
2,214
11,517
CTF Operating
6,695
32,786
29,405
26,334
23,505
21,263
139,987
Total State
$7,138
$35,001
$31,620
$28,549
$25,719
$23,477
$151,504
 
 
2005
2006 - 2010
2011 - 2015
2016 - 2020
2021 - 2025
2026 - 2030
Total
Local
(all numbers are in thousands)
Capital
354
1,772
1,772
1,772
1,772
1,773
9,215
Operating & Fare box
9,370
46,317
43,626
40,800
37,871
35,353
213,337
Total Local
$9,724
$48,089
$45,398
$42,572
$39,643
$37,125
$222,552
 
Grand Total
$22,015
$109,185
$104,493
$98,731
$92,511
$86,969
$513,904
Source: Southeast Michigan Council of Governments

 

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